DINGERS FROM THE 6IX
by Quinn Sweetzir With a record of 9-18, it’s safe to say that the opening to the season has not gone exactly how the Blue Jays had hoped. Even though this start has been rather atrocious, there have been a handful of bright spots on a team full of disappointments, most notably Justin Smoak. After being hailed as a low quality and replaceable layer by most fans and analysts in the offseason, Smoak has resounded by having a very good start to the season, with a .796 OPS and 117 WRC+ as well as batting fairly high in the order in most of his recent starts. Although Smoak is a pleasant surprise for most of us, the fact remains that a single month of a 162 game season is far from a large sample size. This leads me to ask whether Smoak has actually been lucky or good to start the season. On the surface, a .305 BABIP for Smoak doesn’t seem to high, especially considering the face that he recorded a .295 BABIP last year when he struggled dramatically. Additionally, his batted ball rates are at essentially the same level they were last season, so perhaps there is more to this than just some good luck early in the season. For his career, 52.6% of the pitches Smoak has faced have been fastballs, however this is down by a large margin this season to just 44.0%. The fastballs he has faced have been harder too, with an average velocity of 93.7 as opposed to his career average of 91.9. To compensate, opposing pitchers are throwing Smoak significantly more breaking balls, with curveball usage up 4% and slider usage up 7.6%. This trend should be unsurprising however, since opposing fastball rates are down 5.1% as a team. The eye test leads me to believe that Smoak generally struggles against breaking balls, but maybe there’s more to this which I haven’t realized. To investigate I pulled up some heatmaps for Smoak’s career in the hopes we’d all been fooled. It turns out that the eye test was right in this case; Justin Smoak is not good as good at hitting breaking balls as he is at fastballs for his career. So, has anything changed this season? It would appear not, as Smoak is slugging .378 against breaking balls this season, which is both well below his career slugging against fastballs – which is .499 – and a rather small improvement on his career .235 slugging versus breaking balls considering the small sample size.
But if results against breaking balls are not the biggest reasons for a progression in performance for Smoak, then what is? Smoak’s biggest problem last season was his absurd 32.8% strikeout rate, a career high which would have been good for second in the MLB (behind only Chris Davis) had he received enough plate appearances to qualify. Smoak has improved on that horrendously bad figure by a 10.7% to 22.1% to start 2017, and I have reason to believe this is somewhat sustainable since he never had a strikeout rate above 24% before he joined the Blue Jays. Interestingly enough, Smoak’s walk rate is down by 7% also, indicating that among the biggest improvements Smoak has made, has been the ability to put the ball in play at an elevated rate. This leads me to ask whether Smoak is doing anything differently this season when he’s pitched a breaking ball. In fact, the biggest difference Smoak has made is a reduction in whiff rates, which have decreased by 0.90% against sliders, and a rather impressive 6.79% decrease versus curveballs. Although the sample size is quite small, it is something to keep an eye on as the season progresses, as a more disciplined Smoak could make a big difference going forward. His approach has been different depending on whether he’s facing a slider or curveball however, as there are different causes for a reduced whiff rate in both cases. Against sliders, Smoak is actually swinging more often than he has for most of his career, however he has managed to foul off 6.48% more sliders than his career average so far. Even though a foul ball is an relatively unproductive result, it does increase the amount of pitches thrown in an at bat, which therefore increases the probability of facing a fastball; a pitch which Smoak excels at hitting. Unlike with sliders, Smoak is taking 4.35% more curveballs early in the season, but is still fouling them off at a rate which is essentially the same as his career averages. It’s too early to tell whether this change is causing Smoak to strikeout looking more often or in fact shows an increase plate discipline, but if it is the latter, it could help explain why Smoak is such an improved hitter. Although some individuals have chalked Smoak’s early season success to luck early in the season, I believe that to an extent, Smoak’s success is sustainable. It’s true that some things such as his BABIP are at a career high, however I argue that Smoak’s success is more a result of increased awareness about breaking balls which he’s being thrown, and an increased ability to avoid whiffing on these pitches should help Smoak dramatically in 2017. If Smoak can avoid striking out against breaking balls at a higher rate than in seasons past, it should lead to some continued success for the veteran 1st baseman. by Quinn Sweetzir With three blown saves in his first four save opportunities of the season, it’s safe to day that Roberto Osuna’s start in 2017 has been less than ideal. After starting the season on the disabled list Osuna has come back, only to allow 5 runs in first 6 innings of the season. In addition, his struggles in both spring training and at the World Baseball Classic have put Jays fans on high alert. Among the more obvious concerns for Osuna’s struggles is a velocity drop, as his fastball has decreased 1.4 mph. Several individuals have pointed to this as the most significant reason for Osuna’s struggles. After all, we saw what a velocity drop could do to a reliever when we watched Drew Storen pitch last year, and he wasn’t very good. Usually, the biggest impacts of a velocity drop is a reduction in the quality of a pitcher’s stuff, which often leads to a reduction in strikeouts. Storen suffered a rather dramatic 2.2 mph decrease in velocity from 2015 to 2016, which led to a dip strikeouts from 10.96 K/9 to 8.36 K/9. However, Osuna hasn’t suffered the same fate, as his K/9 is down from 9.97 in 2016 to 9.00 early in 2017. This is a small sample size but it is something to pay attention to in the coming games as a reduction in stuff often leads to a reduced strikeout rate. However, one similarity between Osuna’s and Stroen’s velocity drops is the increased amount or contact these pitchers allowed. In both cases contact rates both in and out of the strike zone increased by around 6%. As you can see, there are comparable between the dominant to replacement level Drew Storen, and the dominant to TBD Roberto Osuna. I should however emphasize this sample size is incredibly small, and we should understand that drawing real conclusions this early in the season is virtually impossible. This leads me to explore an entirely new idea, which is that Roberto Osuna needs to stop throwing his sinker. Late in 2016, Osuna struggled somewhat, allowing a 3.96 and 4.10 FIP and xFIP respectively. During September, Osuna increased his sinker usage by over 20% from his season average to that point. This trend has continued in 2017, with his fourseam fastball usage decreasing to 29.90% and sinker usage rising to 26.80% in 2017. There is a rather significant problem with Osuna’s sinker however, and that is it doesn’t really sink all that much. Just consider the differences between Osuna’s sinker, and that of his teammate Marcus Stroman, who’s sinker is significantly better. A you can see, the difference between the sinker of Osuna and Stroman is dramatic. Stroman’s sinker sinks around 6 or 7 vertical inches than Osuna’s, while Osuna’s averages around 2 or 3 inches. The problem with the sinker is that is if the vertical movement is insignificant, then it becomes a slower version of a fourseam fastball.
For his career, Osuna’s sinker is about 0.7 mph slower than his fourseam fastball, and when you combine this with his with the overall velocity drop he has suffered from this season, his velocity on sinkers with minimal movement is about 2 mph less than his average fastball velocity in previous seasons. Basically, more than a quarter of Osuna’s pitches have been close to straight fastballs which are 2 mph slower than they have been in the past. The conclusion I’ve reached from this article is that Roberto Osuna needs to stop throwing his sinker. He struggled when he threw it last season, and when he throws it this year its lack of movement is exposed when its thrown 2 mph slower than your fourseam fastball career average. Osuna’s velocity drop on its own is not enough to cause sustained struggles, however regularly throwing slower sinkers which don’t sink is probably the most alarming aspect of Osuna’s early season struggles to this point.
by Quinn Sweetzir
As many of you know, I'm not exactly the biggest fan of Gregg Zaun. Whether its his suits, his irrational opinions, or his often unjustified rants, Zaun's reputation is not exactly that of a well respected analyst. Instead, Zaun is most well known for his controversial opinions which have become an expected feature of his time with Sportsnet. After Sunday's victory over the Los Angeles Angels, Stroman and Blue Jays fans became enraged with Gregg Zaun, after he criticized Stroman for over celebrating and disrespecting the game. To show you what I mean, here's what some Jays fans thought of Zaun's comments about Stroman.
— Bamboozled Jays Fan (@TuronnoJays) April 24, 2017
As you can see, Jays fans aren't exactly the biggest fans of Gregg Zaun's comments on Stroman, but this is far from the first time has created controversy with hid comments. In fact, Zaun has become infamous for his comments on several topics including his views on rookie hazing, questionable opinions, and misogynistic comments and tweets hes made ever since he became an analyst. Just consider this advertisement for his charity golf tournament.
I don't care what cause you're supporting (and I am a big of Right to Play myself), but using woman in a provocative way in attempt to attract old men to a golf tournament is simply sexist, unethical, and infinitely more disrespectful than anything Stroman did by celebrating yesterday. The unfortunate thing is this is far from the only association with misogyny Zaun has. Just consider this tweet from Zaun himself. The rich girls from TO must be home from college. Tubby, unfortunately manish, and super stuck up are all at Hemingways tonight — Gregg Zaun (@greggzaun) December 19, 2012 Luckily, Zaun later deleted the tweet (which is why I couldn't embed it) but this does not justify the fact that Zaun described woman as "tubby" and "super stuck up". And if this isn't enough just watch this video, and listen very carefully to the way Zaun and his Blue Jays Central partner Jamie Campbell act.
This is the among most cringiest, strangest, youtube video's out there, and yet I don't entirely blame Zaun for this video, as Sportsnet deserves some credit for having this, whatever you call it, take place on live television.
In addition to these sexist moments, Zaun has also been renouned for his impressive knowledge of baseball analytics, such as this formula he created for "run prediction".
This led to the creation of ZARP on the score in which Sam Thompson was the all time leader. Although these analytics are useless and ineffective for evaluating play, Zaun has admitted he is a traditionalist, and analytics are not his specially. So, lets move on to his views on rookie hazing. Here's a quote from an interview Zaun did on Prime Time Sports.
Oh my goodness, I can tell you a prime example of what happened to me, myself. I grew up around the game — my uncle Rick played 24 years in the big leagues. He was a Baltimore Oriole; I grew up with the Orioles. Cal Ripken Jr.’s first roommate in the big leagues was my uncle — I used to go to lunch with the guy. Every time they came to Anaheim, I’d be in the car with Cal Jr. He gave me a glove. So when it came time to become a Baltimore Oriole, I went to the instructional league with Brady Anderson and Ben McDonald and Chris Hoiles — I was exposed to all these veteran guys who were veterans, but I was exposed to them when they were on their way to the big leagues. So when I got to the show I took liberties with these guys. And you know what? As much as they liked me, as much as they wanted me to be successful, they nipped it right in the bud, and they clipped my wings from day one. I’ll never forget it: I was out in the stretch circle, I played catch with Chris Hoiles every single day, and I lobbed the ball to him — and he was paying attention, but he pretended like he wasn’t. He head-butted the ball and all of a sudden I had what was called “the posse” all over me. Cal Ripken, Ben McDonald, Brady Anderson, Chris Hoiles, all of the above. They beat me on my ribcage, physically abused me on my way to the training table. They taped me spread-eagle to the training table, they wrote “rookie” on my forehead with pink methylate, and they shoved a bucket of ice down my shorts. I missed the entire batting practice, and you know what? Phil Regan, the manager of the Baltimore Orioles, he did not care, because he knew that what those guys were doing was ‘educating me.’ I had taken liberties with some of the veteran players. I had become a little bit too mouthy. And, I’m sure this comes as a shock to you guys — I was a little bit chatty; a little bit talkative as a young player, yeah. But I learned how to stifle myself. I learned how to show these veteran players respect and give them their room, and all the while close my mouth and be the guy who listened. So basically, Zaun is saying that he was assaulted by his teammates and that its okay because he was learning a lesson. It doesn't matter what you had done, rookie hazing and assault is never okay, and Zaun is acting like it is despite having been a victim himself. Now, last I checked, corporal punishment is illegal in most of the modern world, and yet Zaun suggests that it should be acceptable in professional baseball. Later on, Zaun suggested that had Brett Lawrie undergone something similar, he wouldn't have struggled as much as he did after his rookie year. The scary thing, is that the interview continued, and what happened next is even more contradictory. If I had a dollar for every time Cal worked me over, physically, I’d be a pretty wealthy guy. He still owes me a suit! He told me flat out, he said, ‘You are never to come past this point into the back of the plane, under no circumstances.’ So, I’m in my first suit that I paid for myself as a Major League player, feelin’ real frisky, and Cal says, ‘I need you to come here.’ And all of a sudden I crossed over that imaginary barrier line. He tackled me, wrestled me to the ground. They had just got done eating a bunch of blue crabs in the back of the plane, so there was nothing but mud and Old Bay seasoning everywhere. He throws me to the ground and he tears my suit off of me, and I’m like, ‘What are you doing?’ And he goes, ‘Remember when I said that under no circumstances do you come back here?’ I’m like, ‘Well you just told me to!’ ‘I said under no circumstances, and that includes when I ask you to come back here.’ So, these kind of things don’t happen anymore, but they need to happen more often. And they need to happen with the backing of the management, all the way up to the front office, down to the field manager. You have to allow your veteran players to create the atmosphere that they want in the clubhouse, because at the end of the day, when guys get along and they know their pecking order, and they know the hierarchy, everything seems to work out just fine. So, not only does Zaun support hazing of rookie's from within the team, but he also believes that the front office should promote it to encourage hierarchy among players and management. This leads to embarrassing moments for the players who are victims of hazing, and who often become traumatized as a result. You would think experiences like these would lead Zaun to reject hazing, but instead he's claims to support it because it kept him in line. Additionally, Zaun has generally been more critical of younger players because they are undisciplined (see Marcus Stroman) and tends to favor veterans. In general, this team should be to his liking, and yet Zaun continues to be excessively critical of the actions its players. I wrote this article to attempt to display Greg Zaun's history of controversial comments, tweets, opinions, and much more. It seems as if the players, and the fans hate him which leads me to ask why he's still employed as an analyst. With a history of being a bad analyst, my best guest for why he's still employed is that his stupidity actually gets ratings, similarl to someone like Skip Bayless. Whether through his sexist views, his lack of acceptance towards the ways of modern baseball, or his support of hazing, Zaun's unwillingness to adjust his views and demonstrate restraint on particular topics is deeply concerning, and if he continues to make comments which are illiberal, and promote his views, than I hope Sportsnet will have no choice but to #FireGreggZaun. by Quinn Sweetzir I understand that point has been beaten to death already, but the start of this years incarnation of the Blue Jays has been far from ideal. The biggest of the Jays problems has been their offense, which has ranks second last in runs scored and ranks near the bottom of almost every major offensive statistical category. During the broadcast of the Jays game from last night, Dan Schulman suggested that other teams are throwing more breaking balls in response to Toronto’s struggles in last seasons ALCS. In response, I decided to investigate the pitch usage of opposing teams when facing the Blue Jays in order to determine if the way their being thrown is a factor in their performance. Even though its early, the Jays are being thrown 3% less fastballs this season compared to last. Instead, teams are throwing more sliders (up 1.6%), curveballs (up 1%) and especially cutters (up 4.5%). This only tells part of the picture however, as if you consider “trick pitches” such as knuckleballs which are thrown less than 3% of the time, the gap becomes more apparent, as fastball the gap between 2016 and 2017 increases to a decrease in fastball usage from opponents by 6.4%, which is more than one less fastball for every 20 pitches. Although not every player has suffered from a dramatic decrease in pitches which are thrown to them, there are several players who have. In the case of Josh Donaldson, opposing teams have decreased their fastball usage by 2.4%. Though the sample size is small (Donaldson has just 35 PA’s), the most dramatic increase to him has been in cutter usage, which has more than doubled from 5.8% in 2016 to 13.4% in 2017. This could be a result of two factors. Either teams figure that Donaldson is simply not as good at hitting cutters as he is at other pitches, or some of the pitchers he’s faced simply throw a lot of cutters. Even if this is a result of small sample size, it is an interesting trend to watch for the rest of the season. Unlike Donaldson, Jose Bautista’s early season performance has been simply dreadful. He’s hitting just .118 with just 2 extra base hits and only one RBI early on in 2017. Bautista has seen a decrease in fastballs faced by just 0.4%, hardly enough for us to consider it a cause for this dramatic of a decline in performance. Instead, the pitch type data leads me to believe that an increase in average fastball velocity (up 1.4 mph) is among the biggest reasons for his struggles. I tend to agree with this opinion, as Bautista hasn’t been able to catch up to the fastball in many of his at bats early in the season. Additionally, Bautista has also seen a dramatic increase in cutter usage, which is up 8.8% in the case of Bautista. Again, it is likely a result of small sample size, but this is a trend to watch in the future if Bautista continues to struggle. Another player who has struggled tremendously is Devon Travis, who is hitting just .091 with a -29 (not a typo) WRC+. Opposing teams have thrown Travis 3.6% less fastballs this season compared to last, however this has been offset with a dramatic increase in slider usage (up 6%) and cutters (up 2.4%). As you can see, the trend of decreased fastball usage in favor of throwing more cutters continues with Travis, and leads me to question whether the Jays are struggling to increase because of this increase in cutters, or because of something else. So, I decided to look at heat maps to decide whether players on the Jays can hit cutters or not. As you can see, Travis has more or less struggled when hitting cutters, as his slugging percentage is down significantly from his .444 career average; however his sample size of just 233 cutters seen for his career is too small to make a reasoned conclusion. But what about for Donaldson. His increase in cutter usage is more likely to be a result of teams discovering a weakness in the former MVP's hitting ability, so is he actually worse when facing cutters. Since Donaldson has hit cutters well for most of his career, this could just be a result of opposing teams trying something they used less in the hopes that Donaldson will struggle given a larger sample size. However, Jose Bautista is a whole different story, as he has struggled to hit cutters even in his hay day. Just consider this spray chart of his against cutters he's faced since the 2010 season. As you can see, Bautista has never been able to consistently hit cutters unless they are meatballs right down the middle. Why it's taken so long for anyone to notice this is beyond me, but it is something to keep track of this season. If people continue to exploit Bautista in this way, we should continue to expect struggles.
AS you can see, Dan Schulman was somewhat on to something. Teams are throwing some key players less fastballs, and they can partially explain the struggles. We should however keep in mind that it is still mid April, and this trend could be a result of small sample size rather that intentional strategy change. by Quinn Sweetzir
The Toronto Blue Jays are 1-8. They’re already 5.5 games out of first place in the AL East, despite the fact that none of the teams have played more than 10 games. The clubs biggest culprit has been an incredibly lackluster offence, which ranks last in HR, R, SB, BABIP, AVG, OBP, SLG, wOBA, WRC+, and fWAR. Their 29th in ISO too. But the Jays aren’t just last. In at least 8 of these statistics, they rank last by a considerable margin. So, the offence is off to a rather terrible start. But which players are most responsible, and how likely is it that each player is going to struggle going forward? With the team struggling, I decided to investigate each player with at least 15 plate appearances and attempt to determine once and for all how likely each player is to improve on their struggles in the long run. JOSH DONALDSON Unlike literally every other player in this lineup, Josh Donaldson has been raking all throughout the start if 2017. He has a WRC+ of 193 and half of the Jays home runs. However, due to the nature of baseball the Jays are not able to remain competitive despite their former MVP’s impressive performance. Though his recent calf injury and a .467 BABIP are concerning, the strong performance of recent seasons from Donaldson is expected to continue across the rest of the season. KENDRYS MORALES Although Morales was able to hit a grand slam against Tampa Bay, his performance has been generally average throughout the season, as Morales has a WRC+ of 109. This combined with a rather low .269 BABIP and his and ISO of .147 – his lowest total since his rookie year – plus a 51.9% hard contact rate, leads me to believe that we can expect significant improvement in the performance. TROY TULOWITZKI Despite the fact he is among the major league leaders in RBI, Tulo’s performance has been generally poor to start the season, as he has recorded a .212 average and a WRC+ of 67. However, his BABIP is a very low .214, and his walk rate is rather low to start the season as well, at just 5.5%. The good news is we can expect the performance to progress overall by the end of the season, and Tulo has done a good job of hitting with runners in scoring position .375 average and 7 RIB’s. KEVIN PILLAR Pillar first of many Blue Jays position players with negative WAR totals, and much of this is a result of a WRC+ of 49. Pillar’s biggest problem to this point has not been plate discipline as it has in seasons past, but rather the lack of extra base hitting ability, as Pillar has just one extra base hit. Additionally, a rather low .258 BABIP and incredibly low .030 ISO are numbers which we could expect to improve, although expecting an extreme offensive improvement from Pillar may be unreasonable. JUSTIN SMOAK The scary thing about Smoak is that his 32% strikeout rate is actually an improvement on his 2016 numbers. Unfortunately, expecting a serious improvement from Smoak is unwarranted, as Smoak has a .313 BABIP, and his .208 average and .292 SLG are not very far off his career norms. Luckily, his power should improve, as his ISO is just .083, which would be the lowest of his career. EZEQUIEL CARRERA Zeke is struggling to start the season, with just 3 hits and zero walks with 17 plate appearances to start the season. Admittedly, his sample size is about half of the size of most of the other names on this list, and a .188 AVG is caused largely by a low .231 BABIP and .063 ISO. Luckily Carrera has only played part time to this point in the season, however that could change as the Jays search for a reasonable productive lineup, however expecting Carrera to display extensive improvement overall is not realistic. JOSE BAUTISTA To be honest, I am seriously worried by Jose Bautista’s early season performance. He has a 25% strikeout rate, a 12.2% swinging strike rate, and has looked like he’s unable to catch up to any pitcher with velocity in the early going. Although Bautista should improve upon a .208 BABIP and .061 ISO, the concerns are astronomical, and his performance should be closely watched in the coming games. STEVE PEARCE Although Pearce hasn’t looked great at the plate, his versatility and track record should lead to some improved performance from the veteran. He’s hitting .174 in 25 plate appearances, but this should improve with an increase in his .235 BABIP, and his .000 (not a typo) ISO. Plus his 24% strikeout rate is a little high which should result is a solid season from Pearce. RUSSELL MARTIN After starting the season 0 for 21, Martin finally managed to get a hit. Unfortunately, a .042 average and .083 slugging are not going to cut it, but these numbers should improve dramatically over time, as Martin has a .071 BABIP and a 32.3% strikeout rate. However, career trends indicate that we can expect Martin to improve significantly over time, even if he is in a bad stretch to open 2017. DEVON TRAVIS The Jays worst player according to fWAR so far, Travis has struggled mightily in the early stages of the season. Already worth -0.5 fWAR, Travis’ .088 average is expected to rise due to his low BABIP of .111 and ISO of .000. Travis has shown an ability to hit consistently throughout his career, and we can hope for some improvement in the near future. After investigating the Jays 10 main position players a few things became apparent to me. The first is that many Jays have remarkably low BABIP’s, which has at least in part led to an inability to get hits. This combined with the often low ISO’s are a result of small sample size, and we can expect serious improvement from this offence in the coming games, even if the current results have been underwhelming. Considering the strength of the Jays pitching staff, a serious improvement from a record standpoint in a short amount of time is possible, and if the Jays are able to 10-6 (putting their overall record at 11-14) then the Jays are fine – albeit behind – from a standings standpoint early in the season. Anyway, the Jays are in poor shape at this moment, however expecting the offence to be this bad over the course of the season is unwarranted, and the Jays should not be panicking over their early season struggles. by Quinn Sweetzir
To put it lightly, the start to the season for this year’s Toronto Blue Jays has been quite mediocre. Although the 1-6 record is nothing to get excited over, it does not mean the season is already a failure, or show that the team is not a playoff contender as would be suggested by some, but rather proves the erratic predictability of a baseball game from day to day. Though several fans and a few analysts – most notability Jon Morosi – are concerned with the Jays early season performance, the fact of the matter is in baseball good teams lose once in a while, and in any particular major league baseball game, anything can happen. But it wouldn’t be right of me to tell you that the Jays are in fine shape without giving you some other examples, so here is every Jays team to make the postseason (plus the 96 win team in 1987) and their biggest slumps.
This shows that even the best teams can have stretches where they don’t play well, as even the best teams in Jays history had stretches where they were 1-6. All but two had even worse stretches. It just shows that putting too much thought into a slow start to the season does nobody any good. Panicking over a mediocre start to the season is an easy thing to do, but the fact remains that this club is still very much in contention. Fangraphs gives it a playoff probability of 30.0% and while this number is far from ideal, an average start is far from a deal breaker for the Jays. All we can do is hope for some improvement from the Jays in the meantime which is probably given the amount of talent on the roster (and Russell Martin can’t possibly go 0 for the season right?), and the volatility of baseball itself day to day. In a 162 game season, things balance out and worrying now does nobody any good, and panicking over some struggles from a good team is simply irrational. by Quinn Sweetzir
The 2017 season opened Monday, and the Jays came up short, losing 3-2 in extra innings against the Baltimore Orioles. Though the result was not what I desired, watching the Jays first live, meaningful baseball game in months was incredibly satisfying. But now that the first one's over, it's time to consider how the Jays can win as many of the next 161 as possible, specifically looking at controllable things that the club should do to help themselves win as much as possible. As such, here are five things the Jays should avoid doing throughout next season. 1. Don't Use Jason Grilli Against Lefties This one is really pretty simple. The Jays should look to avoid using Jason Grilli against left handed hitters because he simply struggles to get outs. Grilli's triple slash against righties in 2016 was .197/.261/.352 - a very good line overall. However his abilities decline significantly against lefties however, as his triple slash regresses to .211/.372/.506, a rather alarming trend. Luckily, there is rather simple fix to this, and that is to avoid using Grilli against lefties as much as possible. After all, the 8.10 BB/9 against lefties is not something we want to see this season. 2. Don't Fall For Ezequiel Carrera's Streakiness Ezequiel Carrera does this thing every once in a while, where he gets hot for a few weeks, fans start to think he's worthy of a full time outfield role, and than opposing pitchers remember he's Ezequiel Carrera, and he goes cold again. Since joining the Jays in 2015, Carrera's lack of consistency has been both incredible and frustrating. Although this streakiness has occasionally effective - 2016 playoffs - it has let to some rather underwhelming seasons overall. Just consider his numbers from last season. Carrera's WRC+ ranged from -32 to 173 depending on the month, which just goes to show that trusting him can be beneficial for a couple of weeks, but is not sustainable in the long run. 3. Don't Be Afraid To Joe Biagini For Multiple Innings At A Time There are two big benefits to using Biagini for multiple innings at a time this coming season. First, doing so makes it easier to transition him to the rotation in 2018 should one of Marco Estrada or Francisco Liriano depart in free agency. Secondly, Doing so improves the Jays this season. If the Jays elect to use him in this role more frequently, it allows the Jays to avoid overusing other members of their bullpen, and keeps Biagini if (or when) one of the Jays starters gets injured. Plus, doing so also could allow to remove their starters earlier in the game, and have a smooth transition to the back end of the bullpen without overusing the rest of the bullpen. 4. Don't Overwork Russell Martin In seasons past, excessive playing time for Russell Martin could be justified by the fact that Josh Thole was the clubs backup catcher, and could realistically expected to perform at a quality level for 40+ games a season. However, the club replaced Thole with Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who might not be a reincarnation of Buster Posey, but is as least solid enough to keep Martin off the field 40+ times this season. Keeping Martin healthy is one of the keys to a succesful season, and adding Salty could lead to an improvement in the performance of both Martin, and from the backup catcher standpoint. 5. No Stupid Injuries Joaquin Benoit tore his left calf running fro the bullpen to a brawl in a game against the Yankees last season. He was out for the rest of the season. Devon Travis was out a few games from injuries suffered in the same brawl. The fact of the matter is that injuries like this are both avoidable and outright stupid, and the Jays need to do their best to ensure that they don't get injured in unnecessary brawl, or falling down the dugout steps, or washing kitchen equipment, or any other dumb reason. Injuries are unavoidable throughout a 162 game season, but risking further injuries in preventable circumstances is something the Jays should absolutely about this season. Every game counts, and you never know when losing a player to injury is going to cost you dearly. Anyway, that's it for my things for the Jays to avoid in 2017. Though there are a few more smaller things, these are the big ones, and may prove to play a surprising role in the success of the team in 2017.
by Quinn Sweetzir
Only a few hours remain in the extensive wait for the Jays first real game since October. As a result of the season starting, the Jays released their 25 man roster, a roster which featured several questionable decisions which has sparked massive debate among Jays fans on Twitter. The way some people were arguing could leave you to believe that Melvin Upton Jr. was Jose Bautista, or that Ryan Goins was Robinson Cano. Seriously, there was some extreme arguments from both sides, some of which were stronger than others, however I'm here to set the record straight on some of these decisions and reach a conclusion on why the Jays roster. In all honesty, the decisions the Jays front office made will end up having a very insignificant impact on the team on the field. At most, the decisions will impact the season by 1 win. But for a team that projects to win somewhere around 87 games, that one win becomes critical, as the projected win total is right around the cut off point of the second wild card spot. The debate on the inclusion of Ryan Goins vs Melvin Upton Jr. is puzzling, and if we are to reach a conclusion about who is more valuable, we need to look at the facts. So consider the WRC+ of the pair, which will help explain why I supported the inclusion of Upton Jr. over Goins.
That sums it up really. Upton at is worst, is still about as good at hitting as we can really expect Goins to be. This should honestly be reason enough to keep Upton Jr. over Goins, but the front office decided otherwise so we're stuck with Goins until a roster move happens. (By the way, if any Goins supporters wants to suggest that I'm hiding something by ignoring the career highs of Goins and Upton Jr., I would point out to you that Goins' career high WRC+ is 84, and Upton Jr.'s is 137.
Now the biggest argument for keeping Goins over Upton Jr. is their respective defensive skills. If we consider their defensive value last season, Upton Jr. recorded a UZR/150 of 3.7, while Goins managed a UZR/150 around 8 (the exact value is difficult to determine, considering the total variety of positions Goins played last season). What this means is yes, Goins is better than Upton Jr. defensivly. What this actually means is that Goins is going to be about 4 defensive runs better than Upton Jr., a number which fails to make up for the vast difference in the pairs offensie skill. Although the Goins vs Upton Jr. debate was the far more discussed debate among Blue Jays fans, there is an equally puzzling decision made on the pitching side of things which has confused me to an equal extent. What I am referring to is the decision to DFA Mike Boslinger, and call up Dominic Leone to the majors. The reason this move is so puzzling, is the fact that both players project to play at a relativly similar level, and yet the Jays elected to DFA Boslinger, effectivly guarenteeing he ends up with another organization instead of keeping the out of options Boslinger in the majors. Before Roberto Osuna was placed on the DL, the fact that Boslinger was out of options already caused me to wonder why the club elected to keep Ryan Tepera over him, however the repeated decision to do the same with Leone is more puzzling and questionable. In essence, Boslinger gets to go to a new organization while the previously sent down Leone gets to make the big league club. Plus, the decision to DFA Boslinger leaves the Jays without a true long reliever in their bullpen, and although this is not a major concern, it is something to consider. The best argument for keeping Leone over Boslinger is that Leone might have slightly more long term upside, and although this might be true, the Jays could keep Leone in the minors until someone struggles or gets injured. The Jays could than recall Leone, without losing overall depth to other organizations. Another argument for keeping Leone is that someone needed to be DFA'd to make room for Jarrod Saltalamacchia on the 40 man roster, and the Jays decided Boslinger was the most expendable. However I counter that Boslinger has far more upside than several players on the Jays 40 man, including Ryan Borucki, Darrell Ceciliani, and especially Chris Smith. If you decide that putting on Boslinger is not worth exposing to waivers, while DFAing someone else, than Boslinger should be on the big league roster instead of in the minors. (This is an aside but I hope Boslinger gets picked up by the Padres or Reds, and pitches 150+ innings as a starting pitcher. He is probably better that whoever those teams have as their 5th starter). Anyway, the decisions made by the Blue Jays front office can be considered questionable at best, and should have been made with differently in order to help the club long term. The fact that Ryan Goins and Dominic Leone are on the opening day roster, and Melvin Upton Jr. and Mike Boslinger are out or basically out of the organization is a decision which was incorrectly made. The long term impact of this on the Jays may be insignificant, but could end up costing the club dearly in the first few weeks of this season. by Quinn Sweetzir
The next game the Toronto Blue Jays play will actually matter. Finally. We have waited through the eventful beginning of the offseason, the prolonged end, and the annually underwhelming event that is spring training. Whether you’re excited for the beginning of the season or relieved that it’s finally here, it’s time to make predictions about the team on the field, where we know who’s going to be on that team. So, I present one bold prediction for every player on the 25 man roster (plus two more for players on the DL). PITCHERS RP – Joe Biagini After injuries, Biagini is forced to make a few spot starts throughout the season. He impresses enough to be given a rotation spot in place of one of the Jays pending free agent starters in 2018. SP – Marco Estrada An increase in Estrada’s BABIP is offset by the fact that his back is fully healthy, resulting in yet another good season from the veteran righty. RP – Jason Grilli John Gibbons uses Grilli as a traditional setup guy, which leads to some early season struggles, particularly against left handed hitters. However, a change in his usage results in a very successful second half. SP – J.A. Happ Though his performance is still decent, Happ is inconsistent throughout the season, which causes him to be left out of the Jays playoff rotation in October. RP – J.P. Howell Used mostly as a lefty specialist, Howell manages to be among the major league leaders in total games pitched, and proves to be worth much more than his 3 million offseason price. RP – Dominic Leone Leone spends most of the season shuttling up and down between the majors and AAA before ending up with a different organization by the seasons end. SP – Francisco Liriano In a contract year, Liriano has one of the best seasons of his career, and is good enough to be given starts in a playoff game. Liriano will also break the 200 inning total for the first time in his career. RP – Aaron Loup Thanks to the return of his velocity, Loup manages to return to his pre-2015 form and becomes an effective weapon out of the bullpen for the Jays by the seasons end. CP – Roberto Osuna (DL) Though Osuna’s performance is very good, a mid season arm injury causes him to miss significant time, which results in him losing the closers role before the end of the season. SP – Aaron Sanchez Though Sanchez still pitches well enough to be effective, he pitches worse than he did in 2016 by a wide margin, finishing with an ERA around 3.70. RP – Joe Smith The generically named right hander continues with his average and uneventful performance by pitching about 50 games with an ERA around 3.50 SP – Marcus Stroman A newfound confidence for the young righty leads to a Cy Young caliber season from Stroman, who manages to record the most fWAR of any pitcher in the AL East. RP – Ryan Tepera Tepera dominates for a period of about 2 months before falling off a cliff and returning to his previous form, similarly to Bo Schultz in 2015. POSITION PLAYERS IF – Darwin Barney As the backup infielder, Barney plays well enough for the Jays front office to finally accept that Ryan Goins has no place on the Jays roster by midseason. RF – Jose Bautista After a relatively poor 2016, Bautista comes back at his best, and records a .260/.375/.500 triple slash with 30 dingers. Though his defense is far from perfect, it also improves from his dismal performance in 2016. OF – Ezequiel Carrera Playing most of his early season games as a backup outfielder, Carrera gains the starting left field job by May – only to lose it to Dalton Pompey when he goes through a massive slump in mid June. 3B – Josh Donaldson Donaldson suffers from both minor injuries and a small decline in performance which leads to his worst season since 2012. 2B/SS – Ryan Goins A surprise addition to the roster, Goins simply fails to hit, resulting in him being moved to another organization before the all-star break. C – Russell Martin Extra rest given to Martin because of the teams acquisition of Jarrod Saltalamacchia leads to a sizable increase in his performance, resulting in Martin’s best season since joining the Jays. DH – Kendrys Morales The power surge caused by moving to the first hitters park of his career causes Morales to set a new career high in home runs by the seasons end. Morales also plays the field more than he has in any season since 2010. 1B/OF – Steve Pearce Though his performance doesn’t blow anyone away, Pearce manages to stay healthy for the entire season. This leads to about 3 fWAR from the newly signed free agent. CF – Kevin Pillar With his new found ability to take pitches, Pillar is able to become a feared hitter in the Jays lineup, becoming the leadoff hitter by the seasons end. This combined with his defense leads to a 7 fWAR season. OF – Dalton Pompey (DL) Though he starts the season in the minors, Pompey is called up to replace Carrera in mid june, and impresses enough to keep the starting left field job for the rest of the season. C – Jarrod Saltalamacchia The Jays new backup catcher plays well enough to keep Russell Martin fresh, and is a 1 fWAR improvement on Josh Thole’s 2016. 1B – Justin Smoak Everyone’s least favorite Blue Jay struggles badly when given a full time role, and ends up being released after the Jays trade for a replacement at the trade deadline. 2B – Devon Travis Although Travis manages to stay relatively healthy throughout the season, his performance declines. Travis will end up hitting somewhere around .265 and will lose his leadoff spot to Kevin Pillar by the seasons end. SS – Troy Tulowitzki Tulo regains much of the hitting ability he lost after his trade to Toronto, and he manages to be worth about 4 fWAR with a WRC+ around 115. by Quinn Sweetzir
With the season opener just 4 days away, the Toronto Blue Jays enter the season with expectations of a mid-eighties win total and quite likely a third consecutive playoff appearance. Among the Jays biggest and perhaps overlooked opsticles is the fact that they play in what could quite likely be the best division in baseball. With three playoff teams last season, as well as two more which are expected to provide a reasonable competition, it’s highly possible that any of these teams could steal the thunder from the American league finalist Toronto Blue Jays. Due to the nature of this division, I decided to preview each of the divisions other teams in order to determine exactly where the Jays stand. Baltimore Orioles INFIELD GRADE: B+ Overall the Orioles infield is quite good. Manny Machado is at the very least a top four third baseman in baseball, with the ability to play short when necessary. His bat and glove bring an immense talent for the Orioles to build around for years to come. Moving to the opposite corner, Chris Davis might strikeout a ton, but largely makes up for it with his insane power. Jonathon Schoop also displayed a strong ability to hit dingers last season, and when healthy, J.J. Hardy can be an average hitting short stop with strong defence. New catcher Wellington Castillo is also a passable, if unexceptional replacement for Matt Wieters. OUTFIELD GRADE: C+ Although the Orioles largely lack three strong everyday outfielders, their use of platoons and bench players is among the most effective in baseball. Despite declining somewhat, Adam Jones is still a very good center fielder and Seth Smith, Joey Rickard, Mark Trumbo, and Hyun Soo Kim are capable of combining to performing to at least a league average level of production. BENCH GRADE: B This is largely a continuation of their outfield, however it gets a slightly better grade thanks to the inclusion of decent backup cat her Caleb Joseph and utility infielder Ryan Flaherty provide the Orioles with reasonable depth. Combine this with the ability to platoon outfielders, and you can see strong pinch hitters can improve this teams chances of winning. STARTING ROTATION GRADE: D Easily the biggest weakness of this Orioles team, their starting rotation can quite simply be described as inconsistent and incapable of leading a team on its own. Chris Tillman (who opens the season on the DL), Kevin Gausman, and Dylan Bundy might perform at a league average level. However, Wade Miley inspires little confidence and he’s not even healthy right now. Ubaldo Jimenez has been one of the worst starters in baseball over the last three seasons and depth options such as Tyler Wilson and Mike Wright are should terrify Orioles fans whenever they start BULLPEN GRADE: A- The Orioles hope to make up for their subpar rotation with an exceptional bullpen, which consists of last years best reliever – Zach Britton. Additionally, solid arms such as Brad Brach, Darren O’Day, Mychal Givens are capable of pitching in multiple roles throughout the season. Other arms which make the team could include Jayson Aquino, Oliver Drake, and Vidal Nuno, who are all capable of providing decent middle relief for an Orioles team hoping to contend. BALTIMORE ORIOLES PREDICTED RECORD: 84-78 (3RD IN AL EAST) Boston Red Sox INFIELD GRADE: B- The middle infield of the Red Sox is one of the best in baseball; we’ve been waiting for a decline in the performance of second baseman for years which has never come, and Xander Bogaerts should be in the discussion for the best young short stop in baseball. Hanley Ramirez’s resurgence last season also gives the Red Sox reason to be optimistic however, Mitch Moreland is an average first baseman at best, there are still serious questions about the abilities of Pablo Sandoval, and Sandy Leon is in line for some serious regression. OUTFIELD GRADE: B Last season’s MVP runner up Mookie Betts is among the best outfielders in baseball, and should contend for the MVP once again. Jacky Bradley Jr. is very strong defensively, however he is probably due for some offensive regression. Even still, he’s probably a 3 win player. Andrew Benintendi is also an exciting prospect who could be a very talented outfielder. My biggest concern with him is his lack of experience. BENCH GRADE: A- Former all-star Brock Holt’s ability to hit for average and play all over the diamond is a massive plus for a team with question marks at a couple infield positions, and Chris Young is an above average fourth outfielder with a strong ability to hit lefties and run the bases. Backup catcher Christian Vazquez is also a strong defender behind the dish. STARTING ROTATION: A This grade would be an A+ if David Price was fully healthy, however this rotation is still among the best in baseball. The Red Sox made the biggest splash of the offseason when they traded for Chris Sale, adding him to a rotation that already included reigning AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello (even if he does regress somewhat), all stars Stephen Wright, Drew Pomeranz, and young starter Eduardo Rodriguez can play at a high level. When David Price returns, this rotation will be scary good. BULLPEN: B- The bullpen starts with Craig Kimbrel, who is still one of the best relievers in baseball, with a killer curveball, even if he is coming off a mediocre season. The bullpen does weaken after that however, which features several players with great stuff, but average results including Joe Kelly, Matt Barnes, and Heath Hembree. Neither Tyler Thornburg or Fernando Abad is going to scare anyone either. BOSTON RED SOX PREDICTED RECORD: 93-69 (1ST IN AL EAST) New York Yankees INFIELD GRADE: C+ The expected leader of this year Yankees squad is immensely talented, however he is due from some regression on what was an incredible start to his major league career. The middle infield is also decent, with strong defender Didi Gregorius (who does start the season on the DL) and contact hitter Starlin Castro. However, Chase Headly has struggled offensively in the last few seasons, and his defense is only going to decline as he ages. Meanwhile, Greg Bird was impressive as a rookie in 2015, however is coming off a season without major plate appearances thanks to an injury. OUTFIELD GRADE: C Although there are some big names in the Yankees outfield, I have serious questions about their ability to produce consistently. Brett Gardner is still getting it done, but is only getting older. Being a contact hitter, I could see Gardner declining rapidly in the coming seasons. Meanwhile, Jacoby Ellsbury is a former star, however has struggled to stay on the field at times in the past and has a monster contract which he has not lived up to recently. Aaron Judge is also very talented, but struggled to hit in the big leagues when called up last season. Matt Holliday could also see real time in both the outfield and as a DH, however is more of a one year stopgap than a long-term solution. BENCH GRADE: B- Although Chris Carter is a good addition for a very small price, the rest of the bench is rather thin. Aaron Hicks is a defense first forth outfielder and a career .223 hitter. Ronald Torreyes has limited MLB experience and was at best a 45-50 grade hitter. And Austin Romine has disappointed in most of his MLB career so far. STARTING ROTATION GRADE: C Masahiro Tanaka has a very impressive spring training and thought his career, but there are still concerns about his elbow being ready to explode at any moment. CC Sabathia rebounded nicely last year, but even if he repeats that performance – which on its own is unlikely – he’s a number four starter at best. Meanwhile, Luis Severino struggled badly last season, and although I think he could rebound impressively, I am not certain. Michael Pineda has also been very inconsistent throughout his career; however his peripherals do support a rebound of sorts. 5th starter Chad Green also has just 45.2 innings of replacement level MLB experience under his belt as well. BULLPEN GRADE: A Aroldis Chapman and Dellin Betances are among the best relievers in baseball, and must be used accordingly if the Yankees want to succeed. Tyler Clippard’s days as an all-star may be behind him, but him and Adam Warren can provide solid middle relief behind their 2 stars. The rest of the bullpen is weak, but if arms like Tommy Layne and Bryan Mitchell can be useful relievers, it could go a long way for the evil empire. NEW YORK YANKEES PREDICTED RECORD: 78-84 (5TH IN AL EAST) Tampa Bay Rays INFIELD GRADE: C+ This quality of this lineup starts with Evan Longoria, who experienced a Russianness of sorts last season, rebounding nicely from an average 2015. As we move to the right, it weakens immensely, with so middle infielders Matt Duffy and Brad Miller. Meanwhile, Logan Morrison is a rather low quality first baseman, who hasn’t been worth more than 1.1 WAR in his entire 6 year career. Behind the dish, Derek Norris is a solid catcher, and the addition of Wilson Ramos when he returns from injury will be a real plus to the rays. OUTFIELD GRADE: B The simple fact is Kevin Kiermaier is one of the best outfielders in baseball, especially defensively. Having him in center instantly gives the Rays a good grade. However the rest of the outfield is no slouch either, with several options including Stephen Souza Jr., Colby Rasmus, Corey Dickerson, and Mallex Smith. If they can get good seasons from two of these guys than their outfield is in great shape. If they can get that frim more, than they become elite. BENCH GRADE: B+ Similarly to Baltimore, the excess of good outfielders is the biggest reason for this strong grade, however the possession of two very good catchers once Wilson Ramos returns from injury is a luxury which very few teams possess. Tim Beckham and Nick Franklin might not be the best bench infielders, but they have enough talent to get it done if someone goes down for a few weeks. STARTING ROTATION GRADE: B The Rays underachieved somewhat last season and one of the biggest reasons for this was the struggles of Chris Archer. However the fact remains that Archer remains the ace of this staff, and should return to form nicely this season. Jake Odorizzi should continue to be good enough to contribute to this staff, and young starter Blake Snell is worth getting excited about. The health of Alex Cobb is concerning, and Matt Andriese has relatively mediocre tuff overall. But if someone in the rotation does struggle, Erasmo Rameriz can perform like a solid starter. BULLPEN GRADE: B- Overall the Rays bullpen is solid, however there are some concerns. Despite being pretty successful last season, Alex Colome is in line for some regression, if only because he was so good last season. Beyond him, Brad Boxberger, Danny Farquhar, and Xavier Cedeno hope to provide decent middle relief, and Shawn Tolleson hopes to rebound after a terrible season in 2016. TAMPA BAY RAYS RECORD PREDICTION: 82-80 (4th in AL EAST) |
Photo used under Creative Commons from Keith Allison